Nigeria's Tier one Banks have released their 2026 Quarter 1 results, and some of them have come up with a strong start. Savvy investors are paying close attention to know how best to position ahead. Quarterly results for 2026 are particularly important, considering the stance of the Central Bank of Nigeria, which recently directed banks to treat all insider credits as non-performing loans (NPL) or bad loans and make 100 per cent provision for the self-declared sum within an 18-month window beginning from the end of April 2026.
This is not a routine regulatory nudge. It is a decisive move that will shape earnings quality over the next few quarters. The strict rule will see some banks making fresh impairment provisions running into multiple billions of naira, which may go on to affect dividends in the near future. Quoting the The Guardian Nigeria on this subject, "Multiple sources told The Guardian that in some banks, insider lending could account for over 30 per cent of the total loans and advances. Poor transparency and under-disclosure may mask the true amount each of the banks is sitting on as insider debt".
According to Proshare Nigeria, in April "the CBN instructed banks to simulate the resilience of their credit portfolios across a range of adverse scenarios over a twelve-month horizon, including a severe recession, foreign exchange rate movements, falls in commodity prices, supply chain disruptions, contracting demand across key sectors, and deterioration in asset quality. Banks will be required to report their pre-stress and post-stress capital adequacy ratios; any capital shortfall identified through the exercise must be addressed within eighteen months. The test is grounded in Sections 13 and 63 of the Bank and Other Financial Institutions Act 2020, which impose an ongoing obligation on banks to maintain capital that the CBN considers adequate relative to each institution's risk profile".
So, as stated earlier, it is important for investors in Nigerian financial institutions to keep abreast of quarterly results and ongoing events in the industry, not just to stay informed, but to avoid being caught unaware, and to know how and when best to position.
What the Numbers Are Saying
From the Q1 results released, we have compiled key indices across the Tier 1 banks and placed them side by side to give a bird’s eye view of the results, vis a vis their share prices and market capitalization.
Access Holdings Plc led in terms of gross earnings, posting over ₦1.375 trillion for Q1, while Zenith Bank Plc led on Net Interest Income, closing at ₦634 billion. Accesscorp made the highest provision for impairments in Q1 at ₦73.8 billion, coming after the over ₦520 billion impairment provision in 2025, and also took the lead in income made from fees and commissions at ₦205 billion.
As has become somewhat characteristic, Zenith led with Profit before tax and Profit after tax of ₦360 billion and ₦314 billion respectively, posting an impressive earning per share of ₦7.64 for the quarter, while United Bank for Africa Plc had the lowest earning per share. First Holdco Plc surprised with very strong earnings too, coming only second to Zenith with an EPS of ₦6, lending credence to the ongoing turnaround efforts led by Femi Otedola in the banking giant.
In terms of balance sheet strength, Accesscorp led with total assets at ₦53 trillion, loans and advances to customers at ₦13 trillion, and customer deposits at ₦34.9 trillion. However, they also had the highest liabilities at ₦49 trillion, almost double the next in line, which was UBA at ₦28 trillion. It is one of those situations where scale tells two stories at once. On one hand, it reflects reach and market dominance, and on the other, it raises valid questions about leverage and the quality of underlying assets, especially in a tightening regulatory environment.
Cashflow position also came in strong, with Zenith leading in terms of net operating cashflow, and Access leading in total cash and cash equivalents. These are not just accounting figures. They speak to liquidity resilience, which becomes even more important in periods where regulatory pressure and macroeconomic uncertainty intersect.
Market Perspective and Investor Positioning
As at the close of business on Friday, 8th of May 2026, Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc took the lead as the bank with the highest market capitalization at over ₦5.2 trillion, closely followed by Zenith, with First Holdco at a distant third position. Access continues to have the lowest market capitalization of all the Tier 1 banks, a position it has adamantly held for a while now despite its scale across multiple metrics.
There is something instructive in that divergence. Market capitalization, in many ways, reflects not just current performance, but investor confidence, perceived governance quality, earnings sustainability, and clarity of strategy. It is not always a perfect measure, but over time, it tends to reward consistency and penalize opacity.
For the thoughtful investor, Q1 results should not be read in isolation. They should be interpreted within the broader context of regulatory shifts, capital adequacy expectations, and asset quality realities that are gradually unfolding. The CBN’s directives, particularly around insider lending and stress testing, are likely to separate banks that have built resilient systems from those that have relied on aggressive balance sheet expansion without commensurate risk controls.
In the months ahead, impairment charges, capital buffers, and the ability to sustain earnings without relying excessively on non-core income will become more telling indicators than headline profit figures. This is where the real story may unfold, often away from the excitement of strong quarterly numbers.
Meanwhile, Access Holdings Plc recently disclosed the reason behind the absence of dividend payments for the 2025 financial year. The Group clarified that this was not due to weak profitability or cash flow challenges, as dividends had in fact been proposed at both interim and final stages, but rather due to regulatory constraints. Specifically, there were limitations around its investment in foreign subsidiaries relative to shareholders’ funds, which required alignment with regulatory thresholds before approvals could be granted. The Group has indicated that it is taking steps to resolve this within the stipulated timeline, including potential partial divestments while retaining majority control. The question on the minds of investors remain, how did Accesscorp miss both regulatory requirements that hindered payment of interim and final dividends until they were pointed out by the regulator, considering that both regulations are not new (Section 7.1 of the CBN Guidelines for Licensing and Regulations of Financial Holding Companies, and Section 19 (8)(c) of Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act)? Are there other regulations they are currently omitting that could haunt them in the near future?
For the discerning investor, this adds an important layer of context. It suggests that in the current environment, earnings strength alone may not be sufficient to guarantee immediate shareholder returns, as regulatory compliance and capital structure considerations continue to play an increasingly defining role.
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